Chris Taylor defeated Maria Lazar by 20 percentage points on April 7 to claim a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. The liberal majority expanded from 4-3 to 5-2. Taylor won 42 of Wisconsin's 72 counties, including Ozaukee County, a suburb once considered part of the conservative bedrock. Dane County delivered 84 percent for Taylor. Milwaukee County delivered fewer total votes than Dane for the first time in a statewide judicial race.
What Standards Should Apply to a 20-Point Judicial Blowout?
Chris Taylor won by 20 percentage points, expanding the liberal majority to 5-2 on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
Verified
Start with the criteria. A judicial election argument should accomplish three things: define what the court does, explain why the candidate serves that function better, and give voters a reason to show up in April rather than wait for November. Both sides attempted all three. One side executed.
Timeline
April 7, 2026 — Wisconsin Supreme Court election, turnout at 32 percent, among the highest for an April judicial race in two decades.
Taylor's campaign built its case around a single claim: Wisconsin courts serve as a check on federal overreach. Her team connected that claim to specific pending cases on voting access, redistricting, and executive authority. Democratic consultant Joe Zepecki framed the result in blunt operational terms: 'The president and his party should be freaking out. They have lost their political mojo with a little over 200 days to go until the midterm elections.'
“The president and his party should be freaking out. They have lost their political mojo. — Joe Zepecki, Democratic consultant
The Liberal Argument Earned Its Margin
Taylor won 42 of 72 Wisconsin counties. In 2024, Kamala Harris won just 13.
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Liberals made three arguments, and each one landed. First, they connected the Wisconsin court to national stakes. Voters understood that a state Supreme Court seat carried consequences beyond Madison. Second, they activated turnout infrastructure from the 2023 and 2025 races without spending comparable money. Turnout hit 32 percent, among the highest for an April judicial election in two decades. Third, they ran a candidate with both judicial credentials and legislative experience, making the 'check on power' argument credible rather than aspirational.
Marquette University pollster Charles Franklin called the margin 'very striking,' noting it exceeded even the double-digit liberal victories in 2023 and 2025. NBC News reported Taylor's margin represented an overperformance of 21 points compared to 2024 presidential results. That gap between presidential and judicial performance measures argument effectiveness, not party loyalty.
Who
Charles Franklin — Marquette University pollster who called the margin 'very striking' and Waukesha performance 'nearly unheard of.'
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Create Free AccountConservatives Failed the Responsiveness Test
Lazar's campaign operated as though 2023 and 2025 never happened. Conservative judicial candidates have now lost four consecutive statewide races by double digits. Each loss followed the same pattern: underfunding, late entry, and a refusal to engage with the political dimensions of judicial races. GOP consultant Bill McCoshen acknowledged the structural problem: 'They want to know where you stand on key issues that they care about. That didn't used to be how judicial races were run in Wisconsin or anywhere else. But it is now.'
McCoshen diagnosed the disease correctly. Conservatives treated the April electorate as a diminished version of the November electorate. They expected lower turnout to favor them. Instead, the composition of the April electorate favored Democrats because liberal voters treated the race as consequential and conservative voters did not. When Trump is absent from the ballot, his coalition stays home. That is an argument failure, not a turnout failure.
Waukesha County at 46 Percent Signals a Structural Shift
Taylor won 46 percent of Waukesha County, the largest of the 'WOW' suburban counties that once formed the spine of conservative judicial victories. Ozaukee County went blue outright. Only Washington County remained strongly Republican, with Lazar winning by 24 points. Franklin called Waukesha's number 'a nearly unheard of low performance' for a conservative candidate.
When Trump's not on the ballot, his folks generally don't come out, but the Democrats do. He is the best motivator for Democratic voters. — Bill McCoshen, Republican consultant
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Learn moreDoes This Pattern Predict November?
Republicans argue spring and fall electorates differ. They point to the million additional voters who show up in November, many of them Trump supporters who skip judicial races. That argument has evidence behind it. Spring judicial races and fall midterms have different compositions.
But the counterargument has stronger evidence. Democrats have overperformed their presidential baseline in every off-cycle election since January 2025. The pattern holds across Wisconsin, Georgia, and special elections nationwide. NPR reported that Democrats 'continued to overperform' on April 7, extending a streak that began when Trump took office for a second term.
The conservative response to four consecutive double-digit losses cannot be 'wait for November.' That argument concedes that conservatives cannot motivate their voters outside of presidential cycles. If your position requires a specific opponent to generate energy, the position has a dependency problem.
The Assessment
The liberal argument was disciplined, evidence-based, and connected to voter stakes. It scored high on responsiveness to current conditions. The conservative argument was reactive, underfunded, and disconnected from the electorate it needed to mobilize. Conservatives next face a 2027 race to replace Justice Annette Ziegler, another defensive position. If they lose, the liberal majority holds through at least 2033. The clock does not wait for better arguments. It rewards the ones that already exist.
